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China has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.