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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still